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Poll: Trump could put Arizona in play

In Arizona, Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump in a general election but would lose to Ted Cruz or John Kasich, according to a poll released on Monday.

Clinton bests Trump in a hypothetical November matchup — 43 percent to his 35 percent, with 23 percent uncommitted.

Kasich would come out 12 points in front of Clinton, thanks to the support of older, higher-income voters, according to the survey, which was conducted by the Behavior Research Center of Arizona. And Cruz would beat Clinton by 5 percentage points, 43 percent to her 38 percent, with 19 percent uncommitted.

“Growing dissatisfaction with politics in Washington and in Arizona,” plus an increase in the number of Independent voters in the state, suggests that Arizona may be shifting “from its historic position as a ‘safe state’ for Republicans into a ‘swing state,'” the researchers write.

Bernie Sanders would beat any of the three remaining Republican presidential candidates in a general election, according to the poll, which was conducted before the New York primary.

Noting Sanders’ appeal to younger voters, the researchers write: “There is little doubt that if they do turn out, their lopsided vote for Senator Sanders could make a big difference.”

Among women, both Clinton and Sanders would top Trump by almost two to one. “This is perhaps the clearest sign we have seen to date that Trump has deeply alienated women votes regardless of political affiliation,” the researchers write.

Trump would also fare poorly among minority voters, attracting “well under 30% of the Hispanic and African-American vote,” they write. The proportion of Hispanics in Arizona has almost doubled since 1980, according to the Pew Research Center.

The poll was based on 564 phone interviews conducted between April 4 and 11 by the Behavior Research Center of Arizona, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent.

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